Trying the same thing over and over again, without success, is either the definition of insanity or Russian negotiation tactics, depending on your point of view.
The widely leaked draft of President Donald Trump’s 28-point plan is a terrifying leap backwards for Kyiv. It was co-conceived by Russians who wanted to pretend they were engaging in peace, and circulated by Ukrainians and Europeans who felt it was so ridiculous it would surely die on first contact with oxygen.
Much of the text resembles the maximalist positions Russia held during talks in Istanbul in 2022 when its forces held more of Ukraine, and the slow, grinding military embarrassment of the past three years was still ahead of them. Before we dissect the text – and its profound, dizzying advantages for the Kremlin – the timing of this renewed, mostly Moscow-initiated plan, is key.
Russia’s forces are perhaps in their best position for about a year. They are weeks, even days, away from taking the embattled eastern military hub of Pokrovsk, a place of outsized significance and great strategic import, grimly fought over since last summer. Their forces are at its southern edges, and if they take it would encounter few sizeable population centers to their west that are under Ukrainian control before they near the capital, Kyiv. That land is mostly flat and open, ideal for a swift advance. Moscow has also had a breakout across Zaporizhzhia region, using armor and moving its forces perilously close to Zaporizhzhia city, taking, again, open and flat territory that will remain vulnerable during winter.
Ukraine continues to see high desertion rates and draft-avoidance, adding to its serious manpower issues and Kyiv’s drone advantage has been eroded by swift Russian learning and innovation. President Volodymyr Zelensky is also suffering a popularity nadir – facing the repercussions of an ongoing and intimately detailed corruption scandal that touches both his inner circle and the very thing Ukrainians must endure daily – energy outages.
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